Non-tariff barrier on chicken imports into Russia: Impact on production,trade and prices

We analyze the Russian restriction on chicken imports as an example of a non-tariff barrier (NTB). Cointegration test results support the hypothesis that the NTB limited trade. We calibrate an equilibrium market model to cointegration results to assess the market impact. The tariff equivalent of the Russian chicken NTB is estimated to be 30 − 40% depending on the representation of consumer demand. Removing the NTB decreases domestic production by 4–5% and domestic price by 27%–34%, while imports increase by 326–423 thousand tons annually in 2015–2019.     

Does biomass energy consumption reduce total energy CO2 emissions in the US?

This study investigates the causal relationship between total biomass energy consumption, total energy CO₂ emissions, and GDP in the United States for the period January 1973–December 2016 by employing a directed acyclic graph (DAG) techniques and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, this paper examines the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The result of the DAG reveals that total biomass energy consumption and GDP have a unidirectional contemporaneous causal relationship with total energy CO₂ emissions. Based on the results of the ARDL, we find that a 1% increase in per capita total biomass energy consumption causes a 0.65% reduction in per capita total energy CO₂ emissions in the long-run. This finding implies that expanding the usage of biomass is one way to reduce and control greenhouse gases in the US. Moreover, we find that the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis is satisfied for the US case. Findings from this study suggest that energy policies should stimulate an increase of biomass production for reducing total energy CO₂.     

Toward an emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness: a cross-nation comparative analysis of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour of private sector managers in India and South Korea

ABSTRACT

This Type 4 (emic-and-etic) indigenous cross-case/cross-nation comparative study compares the results of two Type 3 (emic-as-emic) indigenous replication studies of effective and ineffective managerial behaviour carried out within private companies in India and South Korea respectively. The method used was ‘realist qualitative content analysis’ involving inductive open and axial coding. Of the Indian findings 100% were found to be convergent in meaning with 94.43% of the equivalent South Korean findings. This has led to the identification of a two-factor emergent Asian behavioural model of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness comprised of 16 positive (effective) and 6 negative (ineffective) generic behavioural criteria. These criteria could be used in both countries to critically review and improve extant, or develop new, competency-based management/leadership development programmes. The research findings lend no support to claims that national culture has a major impact on managerial and leadership practices, styles, and effectiveness.     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

文化软实力绘就武陵山区美丽乡村新图景 ——以石柱县金铃乡银杏村为实践标杆

位于武陵山区石柱土家族自治县的金铃乡银杏村，是集少数民族、革命地区、集中连片的特困地区。一方面该村以自然山水风光为资源禀赋，以培育民族文化精神高地为乡村振兴“铸魂”、“赋能”；以“非遗文化+扶贫”的路子，激活了乡村的内生动力；文化扶贫直抵人心取得了“点石成金”的效果，让土家人充分享受到文化释放的红利。另一方面，该村作为“民族团结进步示范村”，以做深做实民族团结工作为抓手，充分让民族政策惠及土家万户，生动地实现了民族团结之花在土家大地上常开常盛。一个个串联成珠的实践案例，为武陵山打赢脱贫攻坚战更好地接续乡村振兴发挥了活标杆的示范引领作用，向世人展示一幅色彩斑斓的美丽乡村新图景。     

自驾偏好、居民异质与居住选址——基于单中心城市模型的空间均衡分析

基于线性单中心城市模型，研究了自驾偏好和居民拥有车辆异质性对双方式交通走廊沿线居民出行方式选择和居住区位选址均衡的影响.将有车居民对自驾出行的偏好集成到直接效用函数中，建立了空间均衡模型.分析发现，当城市居民全部自驾出行时，租金-距离可能呈现先提高后降低的趋势.考虑只有部分居民拥有自驾车辆的一般情形，推导出了有车和无车居民在城市走廊沿线居住分布的不同均衡模式.通过理论解析，进一步考察了小汽车保有量和城市居民数量的变化对城市空间结构和居民效用水平的影响.     

Estimation of the additive hazards model with interval-censored data and missing covariates

The additive hazards model is one of the most commonly used regression models in the analysis of failure time data and many methods have been developed for its inference in various situations. However, no established estimation procedure exists when there are covariates with missing values and the observed responses are interval-censored; both types of complications arise in various settings including demographic, epidemiological, financial, medical and sociological studies. To address this deficiency, we propose several inverse probability weight-based and reweighting-based estimation procedures for the situation where covariate values are missing at random. The resulting estimators of regression model parameters are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The numerical results that we report from a simulation study suggest that the proposed methods work well in practical situations. An application to a childhood cancer survival study is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 499–517; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

信心、货币政策与中国经济波动关系的统计检验

文章基于时变视角,依据行为经济学理论,构建了一个包含企业家信心、投资者信心、利率、货币增长率、经济增长率和通货膨胀率六变量的TVP-VAR模型,研究信心、货币政策与经济波动之间的时变特征。结果表明:企业家信心和投资者信心能够影响利率和货币增长率,即信心可以通过影响货币政策进而作用于宏观经济。货币增长率和利率能够影响投资者信心和企业家信心,进而可以通过信心影响宏观经济。从时变角度看,企业家信心一单位的正向冲击在整个样本区间内均会促进经济的增长;在短期内投资者信心和货币增长率对经济增长具有促进作用,但是在长期内货币增长率的提高会阻碍经济的增长。     

Negotiating Accessibility for Electronic Resources

Abstract

Accessibility of library electronic resources is a must. Its importance derives from professional ethics of librarianship, rising total costs of acquisition, and mounting legal challenges to colleges and universities that fail to provide resources accessible to users with disabilities. Library staff are responsible for ensuring the accessibility of vendor-licensed eresources. This column reviews the accessibility clauses of nine model license agreements for electronic resources. It describes terms that should go into an optimal accessibility clause and creates a composite model clause. It also provides guidance for library staff seeking to negotiate stronger accessibility language into vendor license agreements. Finally, it addresses the impact of accommodation requests on the total cost of acquiring library eresources, concluding with a call to redouble efforts to advocate for greater accessibility and educate both vendors and library staff about its importance.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.